New Reality Emerging on Illegal Immigration

[Jeanfromfillmore]

New Reality Emerging on Illegal Immigration
The United States is a country that has been peopled largely by vast surges of migration -- from the British Isles in the 18th century, from Ireland and Germany in the 19th century, from Eastern and Southern Europe in the early 20th century, and from Latin America and Asia in the last three decades.
Going back in history, almost no one predicted that these surges of migration would begin -- and almost no one predicted that they would stop when they did.
Thus when the 1965 Immigration Reform Act was passed, almost no one predicted that we would have massive immigration from Mexico. Experts told us that immigrants came in large numbers only from Europe.
The experts got that wrong. From 1980 to 2008, more than 5 million Mexicans legally entered the United States. And Mexicans account for about 60 percent of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. today.
Immigration policymakers have assumed that the flow of Mexican immigrants would continue indefinitely at this high level. But now evidence is accumulating that this vast surge of migration is ending.
The Pew Hispanic Center, analyzing Census statistics, has estimated that illegal Mexican entrants have been reduced from 525,000 annually in the 2000-04 years to 100,000 in 2010.
"The flow has already stopped," Douglas Massey of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton recently told The New York Times. "The net traffic has gone to zero and is probably a little bit negative."
One reason is the deep recession and slow economic recovery here in the United States. Tens of thousands of construction jobs, once plentiful in high-immigration states, have disappeared. Foreclosures on mortgages that should never have been granted have been especially high among Hispanics.
State laws, like Arizona's law requiring use of the federal e-Verify system to check on immigration status of new hires, have clearly had some impact. And the cost of crossing the border illegally has sharply increased.
The Pew Hispanic Center estimates the 2010 illegal population at 11.2 million, down from the 2007 peak of 12.0 million and just about the same level as in 2005. It's probably lower today.
Even more important, things have changed in Mexico. Its birth rate has fallen from 7 children per woman in 1971 to 3.2 in 1990 and 2 in 2010, barely enough to prevent population loss.
Mexico has finally become a majority middle-class country, former Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda argues in his recent book "Manana Forever?" Mexico has more cars and television sets than households now, most Mexicans have credit cards, and there are almost as many cell phones as people.
There has been a boom in higher education, especially in technical schools. The increasing numbers of well-educated Mexicans have no need to go to the United States to live a comfortable and even affluent life. Mexico has grown its way out of poverty.This is something that I found a few months ago while looking and comparing stats between the US and third world countries including many just south of us. What I found was that Mexico has been doing quite well and actually better than the US in the past few years. But it's something no one was reporting on, and when I mentioned it, some did not believe it. Let's hope it's true and the US puts the needed laws and infrastructure in place to prevent another invasion.
The historic experience has been that countries cease generating large numbers of immigrants when they reach a certain economic level, as Germany did in the 1880s. Mass migration from Puerto Rico, whose residents are U.S. citizens, ended in the early 1960s, when income levels reached one-third of those on the mainland.
All of which has implications for U.S. immigration policy. It seems clear that tougher enforcement measures, like requiring use of e-Verify, can reduce the number of illegals in the United States. Returning to Mexico is a more attractive alternative than it used to be.
And the desire of legal immigrants to bring in collateral relatives under family reunification provisions is likely to diminish. That means we can shift our immigration quotas to higher-skill immigrants, as recommended by a panel convened by the Brookings Institution and Duke University's Kenan Institute and as done currently by Canada and Australia.
Such a change would be in line with the new situation. Mexican immigrants have tended to be less educated and lower-skill than immigrants from other Latin or Asian countries. Lower Mexican immigration means lower low-skill immigration. Employers of such immigrants may have to adjust their business models.
Probably they are already doing so. But government adjusts more slowly.
Barack Obama has been calling for immigration legislation similar to what George W. Bush sought, legislation geared to a status quo that no longer exists and seems unlikely to return. That's going nowhere. But sooner or later we should adjust the law to address the new emerging reality.

[ilbegone]

Mexico has finally become a majority middle-class country, former Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda argues in his recent book "Manana Forever?" Mexico has more cars and television sets than households now, most Mexicans have credit cards, and there are almost as many cell phones as people.

There has been a boom in higher education, especially in technical schools. The increasing numbers of well-educated Mexicans have no need to go to the United States to live a comfortable and even affluent life. Mexico has grown its way out of poverty.

This is something that I found a few months ago while looking and comparing stats between the US and third world countries including many just south of us. What I found was that Mexico has been doing quite well and actually better than the US in the past few years. But it's something no one was reporting on, and when I mentioned it, some did not believe it. Let's hope it's true and the US puts the needed laws and infrastructure in place to prevent another invasion.

I read Castaneda's book.

"Middle class" can be relative, as suggested to me by the book - that sometimes one has "arrived" when one no longer has to sleep and cook in the same room.

As I remember it, Castaneda referred to an import law which specified that cars resold in Mexico from America were required to be at least ten years old, what's a gross polluting clunker worth in Mexico? Castaneda commented on the environmental disaster that came from that one.

Television sets and cell phones?

Merchandise is sold according to what the market will bear, and cell phones designed for paid up front service sell very cheaply in the US. How much less in Mexico? On the other hand, show me someone in Oaxaca who is uneducated and only makes $8.00 a day who has an I-phone.

Castaneda mentioned television, it's been around quite a while in Mexico. But, I suspect that television ownership for those under the poverty line in America approaches 100%, why not in Mexico as well? Television ownership in and of itself is no indicator of class or status.

I don't recall much what Castaneda said about credit cards, I have an idea that it involved interest rates which would shame a loan shark.

Education was discussed in the book, I recall that he said that there are more uneducated people in Mexico now than in previous generations, that had to do with a time when there was less educational funds than previously due to a national monetary crisis. He also talked about educators going through a form or process of teaching which is more important than imparting an education. Something about a cultural form of ceremony in which the box presented is more important than what is in the box itself.

Mexico has grown its way out of poverty? I don't think so.


I don't have Castaneda's book in front of me - I'm away from home. Otherwise, I would have a look through and find just what was cherry picked out of context for the above quotes.

Some things I agree with Castaneda, I've observed it myself or it was explained to me by far too many people of the culture to be otherwise. Other things I'm sure he sees through his nationality. I did like the book, I believe Castaneda made a great effort to be objective and had some conclusions sure to piss off Mexican nationalists. He even steers clear of the victimization crap and explains why.

One of the more interesting things he said (as I understood it) was that for Mexico to have a future, Mexico has to let go of the past and experience somewhat of a change in its culture.

MANANA FOREVER? Mexico and the Mexicans by Castaneda is a worthwhile read.

[Jeanfromfillmore]

Here are the stats on it.
Mexico’s % below the poverty line (US)
Mexico Country
2000 27% US 12.7%
2001 27% US 12.7
2002 40 % US 13%
2003 40 % US 12.7
2004 40 % US 12
2005 40 % US 12
2006 40 % US 12%
2007 40 % US 12
2008 13.8 % US 12%
2009 13.8 % US 12%
illiteracy
Education
Mexico
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 86.1%
male: 86.9%
female: 85.3% (2005 Census)

World
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 82%
male: 87%
female: 77%
note: over two-thirds of the world's 785 million illiterate adults are found in only eight countries (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan); of all the illiterate adults in the world, two-thirds are women; extremely low literacy rates are concentrated in three regions, the Arab states, South and West Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, where around one-third of the men and half of all women are illiterate (2005 est.)

In the US, adults with a high level of literacy are at 19%, a low level of literacy are at 49.6% and a moderate level of literacy at 31.4%.

US falls into the 27th slot of 205
Functional illiteracy in the United States is growing at a rate of over 2 million new inductees per year

[Jeanfromfillmore]

Drop in Illegal Immigration Opens Door for Real Reform
With unemployment rising and a U.S. debt-crisis looming, Americans haven't had much good news lately. But there is one bright spot on the policy front: Illegal immigration from Mexico has virtually stopped.
Less than a decade ago, a half-million Mexicans were coming to the U.S. illegally every year, accounting for 60 percent of all illegal immigration. But last year, fewer than 100,000 Mexicans crossed the border illegally or overstayed their visas. And it appears that an even greater number of Mexican illegal immigrants left the U.S., resulting in a net reduction in the number of Mexican illegal immigrants living here.
The reasons are complex. Yes, state and local laws intended to make life unpleasant for illegal immigrants may have had some effect. And no doubt greater border enforcement has made it more difficult for people to cross into the U.S. illegally. But the most significant factor is that conditions in Mexico have improved to the point that many Mexicans see a better future for themselves in their homeland.
Most stories about Mexico in the American media focus on the vicious drug wars that have claimed 40,000 Mexican lives in the last five years. But there is another side of the Mexican story that gets far less attention -- the Mexican economy is booming.
In 2010, Mexican gross domestic product grew by more than 5 percent and is on pace to nearly match that rate this year. In the fourth quarter of 2010, manufacturing grew by more than 6 percent and construction by more than 4 percent over the previous year. Unemployment in 2010 was 5.5 percent. We'd be ecstatic if the American economy were growing at a similar pace.
All that growth means more jobs for Mexicans in Mexico. But it also means a higher standard of living for those who choose to stay. Family income has increased by 45 percent since 2000. Just as important, Mexican families are also much smaller than they used to be.
Mexico once had one of the highest birthrates in the world. In 1970, Mexican women gave birth to an average of seven children. The number of children born to Mexican women averages about two now, which means there are -- and will be in the future -- far fewer job-seekers than in the past.
Other social improvements bode well, too. Educational opportunities have greatly expanded in Mexico. A recent New York Times story tells of how one area, the state of Jalisco, which once sent many of its young men north in search of opportunity, now provides a chance for them to succeed at home.
The number of secondary schools in Jalisco doubled in the last decade -- as they have in other Mexican states, as well, including in Chiapas, one of the poorest areas in the country. The number of Mexicans who have at least a bachelor's degree has doubled in the last decade and now is over 800,000.
American immigration has always been driven by a push-pull phenomenon. Bad economic prospects pushed people to leave their native lands, and the lure of plentiful, well-paying jobs here have pulled them to the United States. But the process has reversed. Fewer Mexicans feel pushed from their own country thanks to improved economic conditions there, while the weakened U.S. economy has eliminated the pull of American jobs.
Perhaps this turn of events will prompt politicians to tone down the illegal immigration hysteria and enact a sane, market-based immigration policy. America still needs immigrants -- they are a major reason for our economic vitality. But they should come legally, if we'd let them.
We need to expand the number of legal immigrants to the United States and do it in a way that benefits our economy. We need both highly skilled workers and those with lower skills but a strong work ethic to take jobs where we have labor shortages today.
We have too few engineers, doctors and scientists -- and many of those we're training in our universities are foreign-born with no prospect of being allowed to stay here after they graduate. But we also have too few workers in some lower-skilled occupations. Even with unemployment at 9.2 percent, Americans aren't lining up to take jobs picking lettuce or working in poultry processing plants.
Now that the illegal immigration problem is receding, it's time to get on with legal immigration reform.
http://townhall.com/columnists/linda..._reform/page/2

[ilbegone]

Educated Mexicans over the age of 15 who can read and write...

How many recent American high school graduates can balance a checkbook or write a formal letter without electronic aid? What is the level of actual reading comprehension?

And our economy is booming as well - for Wall Street.

Just because there might be a decent employment rate doesn't mean that there is a decent wage rate. One Mexican told me there is lots of work in Mexico, but there's no money in it. A recent newspaper article described Mexicans, in Mexico, working multiple jobs which, combined, extend well past our traditional 8 hour day.

And just what are the definitions of "middle class" or "poverty" in America vs Mexico vs India? How are official figures compiled, by whom, and who gains by the methodology applied?

Things actually are getting better economically in Mexico, but how?

...The price of middle class goods and services literally collapsed in many realms of society and the economy...

...Today any teenager with spare change can buy a cell phone on the corner...

Some other pickings from Castaneda's book:

...While it is uncertain that low income neighborhood public schools in America are much better than middle class neighborhood public schools in Mexico, the latter end classes at 12:30 for the morning shift, with only four and a half hours of schooling. In addition to the devastating educational consequences of this short school day or mediajornada...

... This proclivity - or emptiness, some would retort - leads directly to the emphasis on ritual. It is the orderly expression of Form. And ritual invades everything, including education. It is quite possible - indeed highly probable -that the recurrent insistence on names, dates, and heroes in teaching Mexican history to children in a certain way, despite the obvious absence of quantifiable results, must be found in the ritual itself: the rite is the message. Children do not have drummed into their heads the unending list of episodes of Mexican victimization in order for them to remember them, much less understand them. The purpose of of the exercise is the exercise itself: the teachers' feeling satisfied that they have done their job (whatever the usefulness of the job); the parents, that they have fulfilled their obligations to have their children taught the fundamentals of life (even if they were not learned);the government official (from the school principle to the minister of education), that they have complied with the law and custom (no matter how silly the law or how fabricated the custom); and the country's political and cultural elites, all gratified by the proven respect for the preordained rite. This process enshrines the Mexican predilection for simulation in a quasi - religious catechism...

...They are beginning to know and understand their own country,and they certainly understand know and understand what they want,even if they may remain confused about who they are. In a poll commissioned in 2001 that asked Mexicans how they view themselves by social class, 1% said "rich", 16% said "poor", and an astonishing 82% stated that they belonged to the middle class (4% percent upper middle class, 44% middle class, and 34% lower middle class). This is a clearly "aspirational" reaction. We know that 82% of Mexicans are not middle class, at most 60% are, so at least 25% of the respondents are mistaken, but their expectations are not. They want to be middle class and believe that this status is just around the corner. But as Federico Reyes Heroles explains in an essay reflecting this poll, they see themselves as much better of than their parents ( like Lalo Sanchez) and their very poor compatriots.

[Rim05]

Drop in Illegal Immigration Opens Door for Real Reform
With unemployment rising and a U.S. debt-crisis looming, Americans haven't had much good news lately. But there is one bright spot on the policy front: Illegal immigration from Mexico has virtually stopped.

You will find that to be a hard sell with me. Just this week or last week, do you remember the 15 who were stranded off the Ventura coast on one of the small islands?
There may be a decrease but they are still coming, getting jobs and benefits above legal citizens. Just yesterday I posted the link to the city council of Richmond CA voting to give the Illegals Municipal ID cards. From the looks of what they will get, it is CITIZENSHIP.

TOO BAD THOSE THINGS IN POLITICAL OFFICE CAN NOT BE VOTED OUT, ALL OF THEM

[Twoller]

Rim, I agree. And try and convince me that things are improving down there in the middle of a civil war between gangster for turf and with the police for control. And how much of what is improving depends on US aid? And when do we get to stop forking over that?

It's propaganda to suppress enthusiasm against our immigration "policy" when Republicans are vying for candidacy and none of them are offering anything for those opposed to illegal immigration.