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Old 10-19-2009, 11:35 AM
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Default ... more Inland congressional representation

Data hint at more Inland congressional representation


Quote:
October 15, 2009

By JIM MILLER
Sacramento Bureau

CLAREMONT - The enormous population growth in the Inland region over the past decade entitles it to more representation in Congress, a new study concludes.

But how that will happen is far from clear, experts said Thursday at a redistricting and census conference.

It could take the form of a new Inland-centric seat. Or the region could play host to fingers of districts based to the west and south.

It depends on the politicians who will be in charge of drawing new congressional maps after the 2010 census, according to the report by Claremont McKenna College's Rose Institute of State and Local Government.

"It's a big question mark of how they're going to address it," said Douglas Johnson, a Rose Institute demographer and one of the report's authors. Johnson said one way would be to eliminate a district elsewhere and create an Inland-centric seat.

But, "politically, that's not going to happen," he said.

Redistricting follows the once-a-decade census. The new boundaries need to contain equal numbers of people and comply with voting rights laws.

But the process also is steeped in politics. It can give a region more influence, make or break political careers and alter the balance of power in Washington and Sacramento.

An independent commission will draw Assembly, Senate and Board of Equalization districts for the first time in 2011. But congressional maps, barring a change in law next year, will remain the domain of state lawmakers.

Thursday's report is the first public estimate of the population changes in each of the state's 53 congressional seats since the 2000 census.

The study assumes that California will keep the same number of congressional seats after the 2010 census and projects that the upcoming districts will have a population of 705,604 apiece -- up from 639,088 when the current maps were created.

Districts covering Riverside and San Bernardino counties will be significantly overpopulated, according to the report.

45th Congressional District (Rep. Mary Bono Mack, R-Palm Springs) has about 256,000 too many people, the most in the state.

44th Congressional District (Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona): The district has about 186,000 too many people, second-most in the state.

49th Congressional District (Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista): The district, which includes part of Riverside County, has 127,400 too many people, third-highest in the state

43rd Congressional District (Rep. Joe Baca, D-Rialto): The district has about 101,600 too many people, fifth-most in the state.

41st Congressional District (Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Redlands) The district is overpopulated by about 92,000.

So how will all those numbers shake out?

Majorities of voters in Bono Mack and Calvert's districts backed Democrat Barack Obama for president in November. So Democrats who control the Legislature and Congress could try to fashion a second Democratic-leaning seat in the Inland region.

But there are several districts in Los Angeles and Orange counties that will likely need to pick up people after the next census, according to the Rose Institute report.

Under that scenario, Democrat-held districts in those counties could extend eastward to cherry-pick parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

"I expect that they will just ripple out, taking out the new marginal areas" and concentrate Republicans in what remains, said Tony Quinn, a former redistricting aide and co-publisher of the California Target Book, which evaluates districts and campaigns.
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