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Old 10-29-2009, 09:51 AM
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Default more competitive congressional districts

State population shift inland could produce more competitive congressional districts

Quote:
Rebecca Kimitch
10/27/2009

Los Angeles County is expected to lose bragging rights as the biggest population center in the state after next year's Census, and that loss likely means residents will have to compete further for federal attention and dollars, according to a recently released study.

The population boom in the Inland Empire and southeast portion of the state means L.A. County also could, demographically speaking, lose a congressional seat, according to the study's author, Douglas Johnson of the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College.

Politically though, that lost seat is not likely to happen, according to Tony Quinn, co-author of the California Target Book.

Instead, the region's congressional districts will likely creep further inland, picking up additional constituents who will compete for the attention of local congressmen.

Redistricting occurs every 10 years, following the Census, to ensure congressional districts have a relatively equal number of residents.

Ten years ago, the San Gabriel Valley was at the center of the population boom. Rather than making the politically disruptive move of making a new district, other districts crept in to pick up pieces of the growing population.

The task of drawing the new congressional districts falls to state lawmakers.

Congressional districts do not fall under Proposition 11, approved by voters last year, which creates an independent commission to draw lines for state Assembly and Senate districts.

Because Democrats will likely control the statehouse in 2011, and possibly the governor's office, they will not only have to deal with population shifts, but also Democratic party demands that Republican seats be made more vulnerable.

For the past decade, congressional seats in California have been almost entirely safe. Since 2002, the state has had 212 congressional elections - 53 seats four times. In all that, only one seat has changed parties.

That is largely the result of a deal worked out between Democrats and Republicans following the 2000 Census. Such a deal is not likely this time around, Quinn and Johnson said.

With Republican registration numbers dropping, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to show bold leadership to Democrats throughout the country. Thus, a conservative approach is not likely.

"Some Democrats say we should've gotten more seats in 2001. I agree, Democrats were overly kind," Quinn said.

"Democrats tell me that there is nothing more heartbreaking in politics than to waste a landslide. The Barack Obama landslide in California was the greatest Democratic landslide for president since Roosevelt's second term. But the Democratic gains to the congressional delegation in that big, huge landslide were none. Zero."

But attempting to make Republican seats more vulnerable means Democrats will have to take more risks. Republicans taken out of Republican districts will have to be placed into Democratic districts, Johnson said.

Quinn expects the redistricting upheaval in San Francisco to be even more dramatic. That city also has seen its population grow at a very slow rate.

So Quinn expects that region will actually give up a district, rather than reaching inland. A new Latino Democratic district would instead be created in the Central Valley, which has seen its population boom.

Some people are concerned California could lose an entire congressional district if the Census doesn't find it has grown as fast as other states.

Because of the formula by which Congressional seats are divided among states, a very small change in the population could dramatically affect apportionment, said Ditas Katague, director of the governor's Census office.

An undercount of a mere 18 people could mean the state loses a district, Katague said.

"So when they say everyone counts, they mean it," she said.
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